Gotta Eat, a Sobering Thought From a Clairvoyant Farmer!

It just started raining on top of a record blanket of snow and its time to start getting together the orders for spring and summer beef. I have been spending a lot of time watching grain and hay prices along with fuel and other inputs. I have looked at all angles on how to control our costs as I read daily the dismal predictions for the cattle industry. We are in the process of ironing out a new protein supplement for the cattle to try to mitigate the skyrocketing corn and soy bean prices. All this to keep the price of local beef affordable in the face of producing a premium all natural beef product.

What really strikes me as odd is that someone actually thought it was a great idea to shift corn, the core grain from our nation's livestock feeding industry, and put it into our gas tank. So now that our fuel has tripled and not going down any time soon what is going to happened to our food price? You can do the math...the cattle feeders and packers have been running in the red for the last year. Every Monday for the conceivable future the grain prices will be reaching unprecedented highs. Something has to give. I predict your food price will double if not triple in the next 12 months.

Don't get me wrong, I am all in favor of sending our fuel addiction to rehab. But somehow I think the intention was not to devastate the price of affordable food. So what does that do for farm fresh and local? Good question. On a good day local farm fresh quality food is more expensive than what you can find on the grocery store shelf. Part of this is due to economies of scale but also premiums for freshness and locally grown. Despite the demand for local I predict in the long run you will see less of this product not more. Odd you may say, but think about this.

With rising prices for fuel, fertilizer, grain, and processing coupled with no economies of scale and a softening economy where does this put the small producer but out of business. What may be a justifiable price based on inputs soon will become unaffordable to all but the most affluent.

I suspect in the long run the corn debacle will result in something more positive such as other non petroleum based fuel solutions , more wind power, and solar power. In the meantime, hold on to your hat and your wallet I think its going to be a wild and expensive ride!